Next Sunday evening the world will learn which of Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen will be France’s new president. 

No election has been more important for the future of Europe, and perhaps the world, than this one, as our Director Bill Emmott explains

We have selected five of the best infographics that make sense of the first-round election results, current polling and their implications. We’d love to hear what you think

1. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik have summarised the two candidates’ stances on key international issues. Le Pen and Macron differ dramatically on their attitudes to foreign policy and trade, with vast implications for Europe, NATO and the world:

IMG_0451.PNG

https://frankreich.dgap.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/TheRaceFinalOneEN.png

 

2. Huge variations in the voting patterns of different age groups continue to characterise Western elections. This IPSOS France table tells the story of how generational divisions played out in the first round, including the fact that Le Pen did better than Macron with voters under the age of 50:

FullSizeRender_(1).jpg

http://www.ipsos.fr/decrypter-societe/2017-04-23-1er-tour-presidentielle-2017-sociologie-l-electorat

Notice the inverse relationship between Fillon and Mélenchon’s results. Fillon was the candidate who most represented France’s political old status quo and attracted by far the most support from older generations. By contrast Mélenchon, a maverick left-wing candidate, was wildly popular among France’s youngest voters. 

How Mélenchon’s young supporters vote next will be a critical factor in determining the final result (see next graphic). But so too will the choices of older voters who are likely to be worried about the impact on their savings of a Le Pen victory.

 

3. This Guardian graphic uses Ifop polling data predicting how votes for the first round losers will be redistributed, including those crucial Mélenchon youth votes: 

FullSizeRender_(2).jpg

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2017/apr/23/french-presidential-election-results-2017-latest

 

4. The first round was a victory for French pollsters as much as anyone else, particularly after less-then-impressive recent performances by counterparts in the UK and US (David Cameron's 2015 election victory, Trump’s 2016 defeat of Clinton and the 2016 Brexit result all caught pollsters by surprise).

These Telegraph charts demonstrate how close France’s first round election results were to polling averages:  

FullSizeRender_(3).jpg 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/french-presidential-election-poll-tracker-odds/

 

5. The Wake Up Foundation’s 2050 Index explores the underlying factors driving political developments in France and elsewhere. Despite being Europe’s second largest economy (bigger than the UK thanks to sterling’s post-Brexit devaluation), France ranks twentieth out of thirty-five due to significant weaknesses in demography and resilience:

FullSizeRender_(4).jpg 

 Find out more: http://wakeup2050index.eu/country/france/


From time to time we'll share exclusive interview clips (including never-seen-before footage), the most incisive blog posts and the most interesting dispatches from our event organisers as they take the europe debate to the furthest, biggest, smallest, weirdest, most unusual places around europe and beyond.

Sign up to the Newsletter



Share this

Be the first to comment

Please check your e-mail for a link to activate your account.
Stay in touch Get our Newsletter

Address

info@thewakeupfoundation.eu

Free Word Centre
60 Farringdon Road
London EC1R 3GA

About

The Wake up Foundation is a registered charity no. 1152894

Donate now

Sign in with Facebook, Twitter or email.

Created with NationBuilder

X Close

Join Wake Up Europe!

Wake Up Europe is a campaign brought to you by the Wake Up Foundation. It was sparked by the themes explored in The Great European Disaster Movie by Annalisa Piras and Bill Emmott.

We believe in the values that inspired the European project but that this project isn't working. Europe is sleep-walking towards disaster. We must wake up Europe so that we can save Europe from itself.

This job is too important to be left to the elites, the media, the political parties alone: ordinary people must be encouraged to discuss what Europe they want to see.


Or support us another way

Donate Host an event